/ Method
Simple to play.
Rigorous to score.
- 01
Choose
Pick from six categories: sports, weather, politics, natural events, financial markets, culture. Every market has explicit resolution criteria and a public source.
- 02
Predict
Vote YES or NO. Set your confidence from 1 to 99. Optionally write one line of reasoning so others can learn from your call.
- 03
Resolve
When the market closes, your prediction is scored against the public source. Your discount code GIVE15 is revealed instantly on submission, before resolution.
/ Scoring
Brier score, plainly.
For every resolved market we take the squared difference between your stated probability and what actually happened (1 or 0). Lower is better. A forecaster who says "70% YES" on something that happens scores 0.09; saying "90% NO" on the same outcome scores 0.81.
Over time, the leaderboard surfaces who is genuinely well-calibrated - not who is loudest.
Formula
B = (p − o)²
p - your stated probability (0–1)
o - actual outcome (1 if YES, 0 if NO)
B - your score for that market (lower is better)
Worked example
You predict YES at 70%. Market resolves YES.
B = (0.70 − 1)² = 0.09
/ The discount
Why we give 15%.
giveaprediction.com and getaprediction.com are two sides of the same network. Here you give predictions. There you read curated weekly forecasts from the top of this leaderboard.
Submitting any prediction unlocks the code GIVE15 - 15% off any subscription, forever, not just the first month. One human, one code.
No tricks. No urgency timer. The code is on your confirmation page and in your inbox the second you submit.
Give your first prediction →The incentive loop
You gave a prediction.
Now go get one.
Use your referral code to access premium aggregated forecasts and AI-driven insights on our sister platform.
Referral code
GIVE15
Use on getaprediction.com for 15% off any subscription, valid for life.
Redeem on getaprediction.com →